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一 | CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico -- Hurricane Norma came ashore near the Pacific resort of Los Cabos at the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula on Saturday afternoon. Hours later, Hurricane Tammy made landfall on the Caribbean island of Barbuda.The storms were each Category 1 hurricanes when they hit.There was a threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding as Norma moved into mainland Mexico early Sunday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported at 3 a.m. ET.Norma was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) west of Culiacan, Mexico, and about 105 miles (165 kilometers) south-southwest of Los Mochis, Mexico, moving north-northeast at 7 mph (11 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kmh). The Mexican government extended a tropical storm warning along the coast northward to Huatabampito, the center said.Tammy came ashore Saturday night with 85 mph (140 kph) winds. In an update at 5 a.m. ET Sunday, the hurricane center said the storm was centered about 70 miles (115 kilometers) north-northwest of Barbuda and about 55 miles (90 kilometers) east-northeast of Anguilla.Tammy was moving north-northwest around 10 mph (17 kmh) and hurricane warnings remained in effect for the islands of Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelmy, while a tropical storm warning was discontinued for Saba and St. Eustatius.Norma, once a Category 4 hurricane, moved ashore with winds of 80 mph (130 kph) near el Pozo de Cota, west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas. The system later weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph (110 kph) winds as it crossed the Baja California Peninsula, the center said.Businesses in Cabo San Lucas had nailed plywood over their windows, and government personnel hung banners warning people not to try to cross gullies and stream beds after Norma regained strength and again became a major storm Friday.President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said via X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that there had been no reported loss of life from the storm by Saturday night.In Cabo San Lucas, curious tourists began to pick their way along debris-strewn beaches after the storm passed.Authorities urged people to stay at home Saturday night. There were still families in shelters in Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, though officials did not say how many. Around 200 people were in shelters in La Paz.Its languid pace raised the possibility of severe flooding. Norma was expected to dump six to 12 inches of rain, with a maximum of 18 inches in places across southern Baja California and much of Sinaloa state. John Cangialosi, a senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said the area is vulnerable to rain because it is a dry region generally. "Six to 12 inches of rain is what is generally forecast, but there could be pockets of up to 18 inches of rain and we do think that will be the most significant impact that could result in flash and urban flooding and mudslides,” he said.Baja California Sur Gov. Victor Castro said on X that “because it's moving slowly, greater damages are anticipated.”But little damage was initially reported. Some trees and power poles were down, but there were no reports of injuries.Police in San Jose del Cabo rescued two people from their truck when a surging stream swept it away early Saturday. Some informal settlements, away from the hotels that serve tourists, were isolated by rising water. Some neighborhoods lost electricity and internet service.The federal government posted 500 marines to the resort area to help with storm preparations.By late morning, the area's streets were littered with palm fronds and other debris, and essentially deserted except for occasional military patrols. Strong winds whipped traffic signs, trees and power lines.Hotels in Los Cabos, which are largely frequented by foreign tourists, remained about three-quarters full and visitors made no major moves to leave en masse, officials said. The local hotel association estimated about 30,000 tourists were in Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo on Friday.Airports were closed but San Jose del Cabo airport director Francisco Villaseñor said he expected flights to resume by midday Sunday.Tammy hit two weeks after Tropical Storm Phillippe swept by Antigua and Barbuda dumping 6 to 8 inches (15 to 20 centimeters) of rain and plunging both islands into darkness. The slow-moving system was forecast to bring up to 12 inches (30.4 centimeters) over a twin island nation, where the devastation of Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Philippe's recent wind damage and flooding were still fresh memories. “This means therefore, that the earth is still somewhat saturated and with additional rainfall, the potential for flooding is elevated,” Prime Minister Gaston Browne said in a nationwide broadcast Friday. He urged residents to take all necessary steps to secure life and property.Government offices, banks and most non-retail businesses closed early on Friday to allow staff to prepare. Residents rushed to stock up on necessities, causing gridlock throughout St John’s and near popular shopping centers and supermarkets. Local disaster management officials announced plans to open about 40 shelters in communities throughout the country.___Associated Press writer Anika Kentish in St. John's, Antigua, contributed to this report.___Follow AP’s climate coverage at: https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment。 随着国泰海通、中信证券半年报陆续出炉,多业务指标的对比也热闹起来。
从上半年业绩来看,国泰海通与中信证券在营收端已呈胶着之势,但盈利能力的差距依然显著。

二 | 今年上半年,中信证券实现营业收入496.92亿元,国泰海通为471.63亿元,两者仅相差5.36%。

三 | 净利润的相差更显著,中信证券归母净利润达233.43亿元,较国泰海通的202.60亿元高出15.22%;若以更能反映主营业务真实成色的扣非净利润衡量,中信证券(236.10亿元)对国泰海通(195.10亿元)的领先幅度进一步扩大至21.01%。

四 |
作为估值溢价的核心锚点,ROE(加权平均净资产收益率)的差距同样印证了上述判断。今年上半年,中信证券ROE为7.81%,国泰海通为6.12%,前者高出1.69个百分点,显示出更强的资本回报能力与盈利质量。 资产规模方面,合并后的国泰海通在体量指标上已实现对中信证券的微弱反超。截至今年6月末,国泰海通总资产达2.5万亿,较中信证券的2.47万亿高出1.31%;归母净资产为3730.24亿元,较中信证券的3510.36亿元多出6.26%,资本实力进一步增厚。 上述两家头部券商“营收相近、利润悬殊”的现象,折射出两家券商各细分业务表现上的结构性差异。就核心业务细分来看,中信证券在投行、资管、自营三项业务上保持领先,而国泰海通凭借合并规模效应,在两融规模上大幅反超(是中信证券的2.73倍),经纪业务则与中信基本持平。

五 |
经纪业务客户数:国泰海通是中信2.27倍 两家券商经纪业务几乎打平,中信证券上半年经纪净收入98.56亿元,国泰海通99.42亿元,差距仅0.87%。 国泰海通客户数量规模巨大,是中信证券的2.27倍。具体来看,国泰海通境内客户数达4089万户,君弘APP及通财APP平均月活1673万户,股基交易市场份额9.15%,注册投资顾问人数6332人。 截至6月末,中信证券客户数量累计超1800万户,较上年末增长7%;托管客户资产规模超17万亿元,较上年末增长14%。金融产品保有规模迈入万亿级。 此外,中信证券提供托管服务的产品数量1.49万只,提供基金外包服务的产品数量1.43万只。截至上半年末,国泰海通托管与基金服务业务规模5.45万亿,较上年末增20.8%。 机构股票业务收入方面,中信证券公募基金A+H股交易量市场份额6.96%。 两融业务方面,国泰海通两融规模是中信证券1.73倍,具体来看,融资融券余额2961.11亿元,中信证券融资融券余额达1086.14亿元,市场占比3.6%。 资管收入:中信近两倍于国泰海通 资管业务是两家券商差距最为悬殊的领域,中信证券上半年净收入71.82亿元,接近国泰海通37.1亿元的两倍,即前者较后者多出93.6%。 中信证券资管规模合计1.98万亿,较上年末增12.13%。公司私募资产管理业务市场份额14.37%。华夏基金本部管理资产规模达2.91万亿,其中公募基金管理规模为2.12万亿,机构及国际业务资产管理规模为7833.09亿元。 华夏基金上半年实现营业收入57.08亿元,同比增长34.05%;净利润14.13亿元,同比增长25.82%。 今年4月完成吸收合并交易交割的国泰海通资管,上半年管理资产规模8899亿元。国泰海通旗下华安基金、海富通基金、富国基金管理资产规模分别达9157亿元、6619亿元、2.2万亿元,合计达3.78万亿。 资产管理子公司国泰海通资管净利润3.33亿元,公募子公司华安基金、海富通基金净利润分别为5.65亿元、2.09亿元,私募子公司国泰海通开元净利润7.99亿元,参股公司富国基金净利润11.43亿元。 市场认为,两家券商之所以资管收入差距悬殊,是因为双方在“主动管理能力”与“产品结构”上有所差异,中信证券在高费率主动管理产品、机构定制及私募业务上具备强大的创收能力,国泰海通旗下公募虽规模庞大,但可能受限于被动指数产品或低费率产品占比较高,导致“规模大但创收弱”,主动管理溢价仍有待提升。 投行净收入:中信领先国泰海通逾三成 中信证券、国泰海通上半年投行业务净收入分别为30.23亿元、22.24亿元,前者高出后者35.89%。 IPO保荐承销方面,易董数据统计显示,截至8月24日,今年以来,国泰海通保荐上市数量行业排名第一,中信证券排名第三(中金第二),分别保荐16家与10家企业上市;中信证券募资总额远多于国泰海通,分别募资352.18亿元、170.43亿元;两家券商保荐承销费用合计差别不大,国泰海通与中信证券分别是10.16亿元、9.11亿元,前者较后者多11.53%。

六 | 中信证券上半年完成A股主承销项目40单,承销规模(现金类及资产类)1467.54亿元,市场份额30.56%;公司完成44单境外股权项目,承销规模42.18亿美元,其中香港市场IPO项目31单、再融资项目11单,香港市场股权融资业务承销规模41.05亿美元。 国泰海通上半年再融资项目新增申报23家、期末在审25家,公募REITs业务发行金额143亿元,均排名行业第一;完成港股配售项目13家,排名保持中资券商首位。 自营收入:中信高出国泰海通逾一成 中信证券、国泰海通上半年自营业务收入分别为269.27亿元、238.51亿元,前者高出后者12.9%。 中信证券自营业务中,投资收益显著减少,上半年投资收益为142.23亿元,同比减少31.94%,处置金融工具取得的投资收益减少;公允价值变动收益由负转正,上半年该收益为131.7亿元,交易性金融资产公允价值变动收益增加。 国泰海通投资收益为亏损11.35亿元,同比盈转亏,主要是衍生金融工具投资收益减少;公允价值变动收益为269.80亿元,同比扭亏为盈,主要是交易性金融资产公允价值变动。

七 | 有观点认为,中信自营靠体系赚稳钱,国泰海通尚处于整合呈“浮盈实亏”的状态。 国际业务:中信证券更突出 在建设国际一流投行的愿景下,国际业务是不可或缺的拼图。

八 | 中信证券国际业务经营业绩创历史同期新高,上半年实现营业收入23.2亿美元,同比增长56%;实现净利润8.3亿美元,同比增长114%。 国泰海通金控上半年实现净利润17.61亿港元,海通国际净利润亏损由-17亿港元收窄至-5.6亿港元。 如何妥善化解历史包袱、完成跨境业务的有效整合,是国泰海通在国际舞台上追赶中信证券的必经之路。(文章来源:财联社)。
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